Transition and Vulnerability of Post-Soviet Armenia

Abstract

During the 20th century Armenia went from an ephemeral independence to the Soviet regime, to then embark on a transition process that historical legacies, geographical constraints, and geopolitical dynamics have made extremely problematic. The period preceding the dissolution of the Soviet Union and following the declaration of independence was a moment of great ideological excitement, but it was above all a moment of difficulty, amidst the destruction caused by the 1988 earthquake, the outbreak of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the interruption of energy supplies from Azerbaijan, the collapse of the centralized economic system and the regional isolation. For Armenia, the 20th century ended with another dramatic event: the massacre of the Parliament. The attack undoubtedly helped to strengthen the authoritarian and nationalist drift that characterized Armenian political life at least until 2018, the year of the “velvet revolution”, which brought opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan to the post of Prime Minister. It is increasingly evident that the new Armenian political season has triggered a worsening of relations with Moscow, as seems to be confirmed by the events that have been taking place since the second Nagorno-Karabakh conflict (autumn 2020). In this article we try to draw an updated picture of post-Soviet Armenia, still engaged, after more than thirty years of independence, in a difficult process of transition to liberal democracy, to market economy, to a socio-political structure that looks to Western values and to Europe with growing conviction.