Depopulation and Population Ageing: A Demographic Vicious Circle

Abstract

Since the post-World War II period, demographic dynamics in Italy, such as increased survival rates, decreased fertility, emigration from certain areas, and an increase in immigration, have quietly and gradually led to changes in the population structure and its territorial distribution: aging and depopulation. These two phenomena seem to be intertwined: intense depopulation and its determinants, outward migration flows and a reduced number of births, translate into high levels of population aging, which then leads to further depopulation due to the increasingly low birth rate and further abandonment of territories, thus creating a vicious cycle. The aim of this work is to study the relationship between depopulation and aging in Italian municipalities during the period 1971-2021, with reference to the most recent intercensal period. The latest period raises significant questions about the sustainability of depopulated territories and those with a high percentage of elderly people. The analysis shows that these territories often coincide and that the intertwining of the two phenomena results in a demographic crisis with social and economic repercussions.