Population Ageing in Italian Municipalities

Abstract

In Italy, population ageing is a rapidly growing phenomenon, particularly evident at the municipal level. This study analyzes the trend of population ageing in Italian municipalities from January 1, 2002, to January 1, 2023, considering the geographical characteristics of the municipalities, such as the degree of urbanization and altitude, and the geographical distribution. Using a spatiotemporal model, the analysis highlights how the socio-economic conditions of the regions and local specificities significantly influence the ageing index (the ratio of the elderly population, aged 65 and over, to the youth population, aged 0 to 19 years). The results show that rural and mountainous areas have higher ageing levels compared to urban areas, and that the southern and island regions, starting from initially lower levels, have approached the levels of other regions, suggesting a convergence in the ageing phenomenon. These findings underscore the importance of targeted policies and adequate territorial planning to address the challenges posed by population aging.